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How to Understand Whether the Project Will Be Profitable
Why do many startups fail, even with a strong idea and energetic founders?
Because inspiration and enthusiasm are good, without a precise understanding of how the project’s economics work, all efforts can end where they began — at the stage of a beautiful presentation.
Unit economics is not a trendy term from startup manuals.
It is the fundamental logic on which the entire business either stands or collapses.
Unit economics is a way to understand a simple thing:
Does the startup earn money on each customer, or is it losing money — even if total revenue is growing?
Simply put, unit economics answers the question:
What is happening to the project’s finances at the level of a single sale, a single customer, a single subscription?
This is not accounting, which records past facts.
It is a model of reality that shows whether your business idea is viable at all.
If the unit economics don’t work, scaling the project will only increase losses — like pouring water into a leaky barrel: the more you pour, the faster it drains.
For unit economics to function effectively, several key metrics must be tracked:
The average cost of acquiring one new customer.
Formula:CAC = Marketing Expenses / Number of New Customers
The average amount one customer brings in over the entire period of cooperation.
Formula:LTV = Average Revenue per Customer per Period × Average Number of Periods
The difference between the revenue from a sale and the variable costs of production or service delivery.
Formula:Margin = (Revenue – Variable Costs) / Revenue
Payback Period = CAC / Average Monthly Revenue per CustomerThe percentage of customers who stay with you after a certain period.
Formula:Retention Rate = (Remaining Customers / Initial Number of Customers) × 100%
The percentage of customers who stopped using your product or service during a period.
Formula:Churn Rate = (Lost Customers / Initial Number of Customers) × 100%
When calculating unit economics, the focus is primarily on variable costs — those that directly depend on sales volume or customer count.
Variable costs include:
Cost of goods or services
Payment system commissions
Product delivery to the customer
Fixed costs (office rent, admin staff salaries, fixed licenses) are usually not directly included in basic unit economics.
They are analyzed separately when building the full financial model of the project.
Key idea:
Unit economics shows whether each unit of business is profitable on its own.
Only then do you assess how many such units are needed to cover fixed expenses.
In practice, basic unit economics calculations are usually built:
In the project’s financial model (as a separate unit economics worksheet)
In a unit economics calculator (usually Excel or Google Sheets)
In investor pitch decks — as one or two slides demonstrating model viability
At the early stage, a simple table is sufficient: CAC, projected LTV, margin, and payback period.
Even minimal calculations help to understand whether the idea should be scaled or whether the model should be adjusted first.
Unit economics is a compact mirror of your business: does it operate at a profit or not?
Unit economics is not a luxury to consider post-launch.
It’s a tool without which any financial forecast turns into guesswork.
Without calculating unit economics, a founder cannot answer basic questions:
How much money is really needed for marketing to attract the required number of customers?
When will the project begin to generate profit — not just “look promising”?
What will a mistaken hypothesis cost, and is there a buffer to fix it?
Will the model pay off at all — or is it loss-making from day one?
Unit economics reveals the weak spots of the project before real money starts flowing into them.
It highlights risks in advance, shows where metrics can be strengthened, and where strategy needs revision.
And most importantly: it shifts the founder’s role from hoping for luck to managing the business consciously.
To ignore unit economics is to build a business on gut feeling instead of calculation.
Typical and costly mistakes include:
Revenue can grow even while the business loses money.
If each deal is loss-making, increasing sales volume only accelerates cash flow gaps.
Investors don’t fund enthusiasm — they fund predictable financial models.
Lack of clear unit economics makes the project unattractive or sharply lowers its valuation.
Scaling without understanding unit economics turns the startup into a loss-accelerating machine.
When prices, customer behavior, or acquisition costs change — the model must adapt.
Without unit economics, founders often act blindly, continuing to invest in failing hypotheses.
Key takeaway:
Unit economics is not “just numbers.” It’s a real-time barometer of your business — without it, you won’t see the warning signs or be able to correct course in time.
An investor does not buy your idea, emotions, or ambitions.
An investor invests in an economic model that is capable of growth and generating profit.
The ability to present actual unit economics figures is not just an argument in negotiations.
It is a demonstration of the project’s financial maturity and respect for the investor’s money.
If a founder can answer three questions: how much a customer costs, how much they bring in, and how quickly they pay off —
they move from the category of “startups driven by dreams” to the category of “startups that can be taken seriously.”
Unit economics is not boring theory for checklists.
It’s a startup’s survival map — a tool that helps make real decisions, not build castles in the air.
Those who understand their unit economics build businesses.
Those who ignore it usually remain in the “startups for the sake of startups” category.
In practice, it’s simple:
Without a well-calculated model, the project becomes a game of chance.
And in business, betting on luck is the riskiest decision of all.